Normativa IMO 2020 podría impulsar la reducción de la velocidad en la navegación y el transbordo

IMO bajo azufre

A su vez el rendimiento global portuario mejoraría al aumentar la cantidad de movimientos.

Bien se acerca la fecha límite para el comienzo de la vigencia de la normativa IMO 2020- que limita a 0,05% el contenido de azufre en el bunkering- se aproxima también un año crucial para la industria de transporte marítimo, ya que no recuperar el costo del combustible por parte de sus clientes (un 50% más alto que en el pasado) podría significar la ruina para algunas de ellas, muchas de las cuales presentan balances con importantes dificultades.

En febrero, Drewry publicó un documento técnico (Regulaciones sobre el bajo contenido de azufre IMO 2020) que ofrecía algunos consejos a los expedidores con respecto a la nueva regulación para a utilizar en sus negociaciones de contrato con las navieras; además, con anterioridad lanzó una Calculadora de impacto de costos de la IMO 2020 para evaluar las consecuencias de la normativa.

De acuerdo a lo captado en el ambiente por Drewry, existe una aceptación general entre los expedidores en cuanto a tener que pagar más por la carga, debido al costo del combustible, aunque todavía hay una serie de puntos de conflicto con respecto a la mecánica de cómo esto se debe hacer.

Desde el lado opuesto, las navieras argumentan que una ganancia a corto plazo para los expedidores podría convertirse rápidamente en una pérdida. Lo que estos últimos podrían considerar durante las negociaciones, ya que cualquier ahorro de costos hoy en día podría aumentar la posibilidad de que otra naviera se declare en bancarrota- tal como lo hizo Hanjin Shipping, causando un caos no deseado en la cadena de suministro y reduciendo aún más la competencia- lo que aumentaría el riesgo del incremento de tarifas en una fecha posterior.

Diferencias de costos

De acuerdo con Drewry la realidad es que los costos por concepto de bunkering para las navieras comenzarán a diferir en un grado considerable a medida que los nuevos combustibles se bombeen en sus buques; la variación se deberá en gran medida a la fuente de combustible utilizada.

Un nuevo informe de la Agencia Internacional de Energía (AIE) sugiere que el gas oil marino (MGO) será la opción preferida por los armadores (en todos los sectores marítimos) a partir de 2020. El uso de fuel oil bajo en azufre (VLSFO), que se espera que sea más barato al principio, se irá haciendo más popular a medida que se disipe la preocupación por la disponibilidad de componentes para la mezcla.

«Algunas navieras también pueden ser reacias a adoptar un nuevo combustible de inmediato, y preferirían usar MGO hasta que tengan la confianza de que el VLSFO estará fácilmente disponible en los puertos y que sea estable y compatible con normativas similares», proyectó la AIE.

En tanto, las navieras con una cuota más alta de buques equipados con scrubbers y que por tanto pueden continuar usando el más económico combustible de alto contenido en azufre (HSFO) podrán lograr importantes ahorros en los gastos de operación, después de la inversión inicial de readaptación de sus naves. El año pasado, la prima entre HSFO / IFO 380 y MGO en el puerto de Róterdam fue de aproximadamente US$210 por tonelada-.

Efectos secundarios

Dependiendo de su éxito en elevar la tasa de recuperación por concepto de costo de bunkering, las navieras inevitablemente buscarán mitigar los mayores gastos operativos previstos. Un efecto secundario potencial de las nuevas regulaciones podría ser una mayor aplicación de la reducción de velocidad en la navegación y la utilización del transbordo. La lógica es que a medida que se reduce la velocidad y se prolongan los viajes de ida y vuelta, las navieras abandonarán los itinerarios con múltiples recaladas para garantizar que los tiempos de tránsito a los puntos clave sigan siendo competitivos.

Un menor número de recaladas inducirá una mayor necesidad de operaciones de transbordo y feeder. La investigación de Drewry muestra que en el pasado existe una correlación razonablemente alta entre la incidencia del transbordo a nivel mundial (como porcentaje del rendimiento total del puerto) y los precios del bunkering.

La ventaja de este cambio hacia una mayor utilización del transbordo desde la perspectiva de los puertos y las terminales es que aumentará el rendimiento portuario global, ya que se requerirán cuatro movimientos de contenedores en el muelle en lugar de dos, como sucede con las recaladas directas de puerto a puerto.

Para Drewry, finalmente, los expedidores legítimamente desean más transparencia con respecto a cómo funcionarán los nuevos mecanismos de recargo por combustible, pero deben tener en cuenta los riesgos potenciales para las opciones de servicio, la competencia y las tarifas futuras en caso de no conceder nada a las navieras.

 

Artículo original en MundoMarítimo

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