Las asimetrías informativas en los mercados de infraestructura de transporte: selección adversa y expulsión de los mejores

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La información toma un papel fundamental en la toma de decisiones de los individuos, aunque estos no puedan poseerla en su plenitud. En discordancia con esto, en gran parte de los análisis económicos se parte del supuesto de información perfecta, es decir, toda la información relevante se transmite a través de los precios y las distorsiones tendrán una incidencia irrelevante y de carácter temporal.

Existe la posibilidad de que en el mercado de la construcción de infraestructuras de carreteras la información no sea completa ni simétrica: las empresas constructoras pueden poseer información que el demandante no posee. Por ejemplo, dichas empresas pueden conocer con más exactitud la calidad de sus obras. Como agentes racionales que son -y fieles al principio de maximización de beneficios- las empresas hacen uso de estas ventajas informativas, conduciendo al mercado a una mayor ineficiencia.

Suponga que en este  mercado existen  dos tipos de empresas: las que son capaces de producir bienes de alta calidad y las que, por el contrario, solo producen bienes de baja calidad. Además, suponga que la información es completa y la parte demandante puede distinguirlas con exactitud. Bajo este supuesto, existirían dos sub-mercados, los cuales son representados en el siguiente panel

Asimetrías informativas. Fuente: Elaboración propia

Asimetrías informativas. Fuente: Elaboración propia

El mercado de las infraestructuras de alta calidad (gráfico de la izquierda) tiene su equilibrio donde se cruzan las funciones Sh y D(oferta y demanda high quality), con un precio por unidad de 40 unidades monetarias para el cual se producen 9 unidades de producto de alta calidad. En el mercado de las infraestructuras de baja calidad (gráfico de la derecha), el equilibrio se encuentra en el punto de corte de Dl y Sl (oferta y demanda low quality) con un precio de 25 unidades monetarias par el cual se produce una cantidad de producto de baja calidad de 4 unidades. En total se producen 13 unidades de infraestructura, de las cuales el 69% son de alta calidad y el 31% restante corresponden a unidades de baja calidad.

Pero en realidad, es posible que el consumidor no conozca a priori la calidad de producto. De esta forma solo existiría un mercado, y en este la información sería asimétrica. Dicho de otro modo, se ha introducido incertidumbre acerca de la calidad de los productos.

En el gráfico anterior, debido a dicha incertidumbre, la demanda que determina el equilibrio se desplaza hacia la izquierda ya que ahora, el demandante está dispuesto a pagar un precio menor. Esta demanda viene representada por la función “Dm” (demanda médium quality). El precio de las infraestructuras ha disminuido hasta 35 unidades monetarias y se producen menos unidades de alta calidad (6) y más de baja calidad (5). Ahora se produce un 54% de infraestructuras de alta calidad frente a un 46% de baja calidad.

Esta variación tiene influencia directa en la calidad esperada de los productos, que ahora será menor, disminuyendo, otra vez, el precio que el demandante está dispuesto a pagar. De este modo, la demanda se desplazará de nuevo hacia la izquierda, estando representada, ahora, por la función Dlm (demanda low-medium quality). En este caso, se producen las mismas unidades de alta como de baja calidad, 4, por lo que la proporción de infraestructura de baja calidad sigue aumentando, en detrimento de la de alta calidad.

Siguiendo con el proceso, la demanda final del mercado será la representada por la función Dl, para la que el precio de equilibrio es de 25 u.m., para el cual no se producen infraestructuras de calidad. Las empresas de baja calidad han echado del mercado a las de alta calidad.

El ejemplo anterior es una adaptación al mercado de infraestructura de transporte por carretera del artículo escrito por el premio Nobel G. Akerlof “The Market for Lemons: Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism” (1970). Se trata de un problema de selección adversa (adverse selection). Consecuencia directa de las asimetrías informativas, este problema se produce antes de la firma del contrato. Tiene lugar cuando una de las partes (parte desinformada) no puede distinguir la calidad de la otra (parte informada). Después de firmar el contrato, la parte desinformada se dará cuenta de que la otra parte no presenta la calidad esperada. En un lenguaje más coloquial, la selección adversa tiene lugar cuando los peores son los únicos que se ofrecen para participar en un mercado.

Existen mecanismos que ayudan a desintesificar la selección adversa, el más famoso es el de la señalización. Mediante la emisión de señales, los diferentes oferentes hacen notar la calidad de sus productos. Por ejemplo, en los mercados de bienes duraderos, como puede ser el inmobiliario o el automovilístico, las empresas oferentes proporcionan garantías sobre los mismos con el fin de indicar al consumidor la calidad de sus productos.

En el mercado de las infraestructuras de transporte, puede ser la parte demandante la que exija este tipo de garantías a la parte oferente con el fin de poseer más información acerca de la calidad de los productos finales de infraestructura que éstas producen, propiciando una mayor presencia en el mercado de empresas capaces de ofrecer infraestructuras de calidad.

Referencias: The market for lemons: Quality uncertainty and the market mechanism. Akerlof, G. A. (1970). The quarterly journal of economics, 488-500.

*Álvaro Muñiz fue pasante de la División de Transporte del BID desde marzo  a septiembre de 2017. Álvaro es graduado en Economía y máster en Análisis Económico por la Universidad de Oviedo. Álvaro compatibiliza la pasantía en la División con el doctorado en Economía, centrado en la Economía del Comportamiento. En la división, Álvaro realizó trabajos investigativos sobre el mercado de infraestructuras de transporte y las diferentes aplicaciones de las “nuevas tecnologías” al sector transporte.

Publicado originalmente en blogs.iadb.org

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